Water FractalTier 2
at RHS DTR Storechamp
decks
1
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-4-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
26.2%
avg ELO -15.3 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1315
· median 1315
· range 1315–1315
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1172
Q1 1228
Q3 1325
1499
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 37.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 25.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
