← Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Fire Umbra CielTier 2
at Distorted Reflections Store Championship
decks
1
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
0-3-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
31.2%
avg ELO -14.1 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1179
· median 1179
· range 1179–1179
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1159
Q3 1326
1432
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -21.9 |
| Fire Suited | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
