← Store championship azure dtr
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store championship azure dtr.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 2 | 16.7% | 12 | 100.0% | 84.3% | 66.5% | 65.2% | 1417 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 66.7% | 57.4% | 53.3% | 53.0% | 1437 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Rile | 3 | 25.0% | 14 | 57.1% | 49.2% | 50.7% | 48.6% | 1407 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Exia | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 52.4% | 49.3% | 48.8% | 1399 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 50.0% | 48.0% | 48.7% | 48.6% | 1508 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 44.7% | 45.7% | 47.0% | 1225 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 56.4% | 45.7% | 50.4% | 1205 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 37.7% | 45.0% | 43.0% | 1385 | — |
| 9 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 44.2% | 45.0% | 46.0% | 1385 | — |
| 10 | Wind Allies | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 20.0% | 31.1% | 41.0% | 40.7% | 1442 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 33.1% | 40.0% | 43.3% | 1182 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 0.0% | 34.6% | 37.1% | 43.7% | 1203 | ↓ low |