EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 37.5% | 6 | 83.3% | 59.0% | 59.3% | 53.4% | 1379 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 52.1% | 54.0% | 50.9% | 1271 | — |
| 3 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 69.7% | 50.0% | 56.6% | 1105 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Fire Rile | 2 | 25.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 50.2% | 44.4% | 49.0% | 1243 | — |
| 5 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 48.5% | 40.0% | 44.9% | 1245 | — |
| 6 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 0.0% | 20.6% | 36.7% | 34.5% | 1161 | ↓ low |