Water GenbuTier 1
at 幻想遊戲世界店冠賽
decks
2
(8.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
7-4-1
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.2%
avg ELO +5.2 per match
expected value
52.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1439
· median 1439
· range 1328–1550
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1156
Q1 1253
Q3 1412
1550
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 17.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 17.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -0.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 8.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +2.4 |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.7 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +21.0 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
