← GFM - Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at GFM - Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Luxem Zander | 12.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.0% | +7.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 53.7% | +3.6 |
| Water Fractal | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit's Blessing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |