← Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Fire RileTier 1
at Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suited | 11.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 42.2% | -4.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 11.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.0% | +4.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.3% | +4.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -19.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.9% | +6.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.6% | +10.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 5.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.6% | +9.2 |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.9% | +7.6 |
| Wind Ciel | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.9% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 43.8% | -4.6 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 90 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 90 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enchanted Fete | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Searing Rebuke | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |