← Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Horse and TaxesTier 2
at Distorted Reflections Store Championship
decks
2
(11.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
5-5-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.6%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
47.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1399
· median 1399
· range 1331–1467
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1159
Q1 1331
Q3 1467
1642
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 29.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.0% | -4.8 |
| Fire Suited | 11.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Wind Ciel | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.9% | -8.7 |
