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Fire AggroTier 1
at Gaming Giant Distorted Reflections Store Championships
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Umbra Guardian | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.3% | -6.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.8% | +11.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.3% | +4.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shangxiang, Fierce Princess | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fang of Dragon's Breath | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |