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Water Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Gaming Giant Distorted Reflections Store Championships
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 18.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.7% | +6.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Siphoning Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Obsequious Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Confidant's Oath | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brusque Neige | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rivulet Adjutant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pristine Scourge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mire Reparation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relentless Hexchaser | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Soutirer Vortex | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overpowering Defense | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aquifer Seneschal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |