Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at S5 店冠賽
decks
2
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
5-4-2
overall winrate
54.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.7%
avg ELO -3.6 per match
expected value
51.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1466
· median 1466
· range 1450–1482
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1106
Q1 1241
Q3 1433
1536
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -2.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.6% | -7.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.6% | -21.5 |
| Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
