← Dane's Games Distorted Reflections Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Dane's Games Distorted Reflections Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Penguin Mill 1 12.5% 4 75.0% 52.5% 55.0% 51.0% 1340 ↑ top
2 Fire Aggro 1 12.5% 3 66.7% 53.3% 53.3% 51.6% 1273 ↑ top
3 Water Genbu 1 12.5% 3 66.7% 60.9% 53.3% 55.1% 1245
4 Water Ravishing Mill 1 12.5% 3 66.7% 60.9% 53.3% 55.1% 1245
5 Water Dawn of Ashes 1 12.5% 3 50.0% 46.5% 50.0% 48.4% 1310 ↑ top
6 Wind Allies 1 12.5% 4 50.0% 53.0% 50.0% 51.2% 1159 ↓ low
7 Wind Shadowstrike 1 12.5% 3 50.0% 53.4% 50.0% 51.6% 1234
8 Fire Seiryuu 1 12.5% 4 25.0% 39.4% 45.0% 45.8% 1173 ↓ low
9 Fire Umbra Ciel 1 12.5% 3 0.0% 30.7% 40.0% 41.0% 1092 ↓ low