← 20th Sept Mox Saga Store Champ

Fire SlimesTier 2

at 20th Sept Mox Saga Store Champ

decks
3 (9.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13 3-8-2
overall winrate
30.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.9% avg ELO -4.2 per match
expected value
45.7% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.3% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1193 · median 1226 · range 1124–1227 (3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064 Q1 1225 Q3 1387 1688
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 33% in the bottom. This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Shadowstrike 12.9% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 53.9% +2.9
Water Genbu 9.7% 0
Wind Seiryuu 9.7% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 36.5% -12.9
Fire Crux Mage 6.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.4% +16.7
Fire Suzaku 6.5% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 33.7% -12.1
Water Aetherwing 6.5% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 45.0% -7.9
Water Allies 6.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.6% +12.1
Wind Astra Cleric 6.5% 0
Fire Aggro 3.2% 0
Fire Arcane 3.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.3% -10.7
Fire Crux Lorraine 3.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.7% -11.7
Fire Oblation 3.2% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 3.2% 0
Water Astra Ranger 3.2% 0
Water Umbra Ciel 3.2% 0
Wind Luxem Assassin 3.2% 0
Decklists · 3 from this event

The 3 public Fire Slimes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Baby Silver Slime +1.00 1 0 0
Reduce to Ash +1.00 1 0 0
Staggering Strike +1.00 1 0 0
Dungeon Guide -1.00 0 1 0
Ordinary Bear +1.00 1 0 0
Blissful Calling -1.00 0 1 0
Forest Cake +1.00 1 0 0
Liminal Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Young Beastbonder -1.00 0 1 0
Beastsoul Visage -1.00 0 1 0
Slime King -1.00 0 1 0
Beastbond Boots +1.00 1 0 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -1.00 0 1 0
Lavasoul Tiger -1.00 0 1 0
Lustrous Slime -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Lantern +1.00 1 0 0
Scavenging Raccoon -1.00 0 1 0
Fast Cure -1.00 0 1 0
Cremation Ritual -1.00 0 1 0
Bestial Frenzy +1.00 1 0 0
Gaia's Songbird -1.00 0 1 0
Turbo Charge +1.00 1 0 0
Tera Sight +1.00 1 0 0
Crystallized Destiny -1.00 0 1 0
Immolation Trap +1.00 1 0 0
Red Slime -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Mirror -1.00 0 1 0
Regal Inquisition +1.00 1 0 0
Annul Spell +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/34773/archetypes/Fire Slimes