← 20th Sept Mox Saga Store Champ
Water AetherwingTier 2
at 20th Sept Mox Saga Store Champ
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 9.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.0% | +7.9 |
| Water Genbu | 9.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.5% | -0.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flash Grenade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chained Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ranger Boots | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Aether | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dahlia, Idyllic Dreamer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Moonpiercer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |