← 20th Sept Mox Saga Store Champ
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at 20th Sept Mox Saga Store Champ
decks
4
(12.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
23
11-9-3
overall winrate
54.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.9%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
51.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1289
· median 1257
· range 1103–1538
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1225
Q3 1387
1688
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 9.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -2.9 |
| Water Genbu | 9.7% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 35.9% | -8.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.0% | +2.9 |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.2% | -6.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.6% | -5.2 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.2% | +5.0 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
