Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at Card's Village Store champ
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 23.3% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 32.3% | -8.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.1% | +2.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.7% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 56.7% | +4.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.7% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 71.9% | +14.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.4% | -1.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.9% | +10.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.2% | -4.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.4% | -5.4 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Wind Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin, Crux Sight, Varuck, Smoldering Spire. Losers more often ran: Hone by Fire, Heavenly Guide, Smoke Out.
Show all 38 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surreptitious Scheme | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Under Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |