Fire Crux MerlinTier 2
at Card's Village Store champ
decks
1
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-2-1
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.2%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
49.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1311
· median 1311
· range 1311–1311
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1224
Q3 1367
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 26.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.1% | -10.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 23.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.6% | +5.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Wind Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
