Water AetherwingTier 2
at Card's Village Store champ
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 26.7% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 67.7% | +8.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 8 | 3-3-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.3% | +2.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 7 | 1-3-3 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 38.5% | -5.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.4% | -5.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.4% | -11.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 36.2% | -13.3 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -7.0 |
| Wind Allies | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backstep | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Prudent Nock | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dahlia, Idyllic Dreamer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Glitter | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Drown in Aether | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mana's Cascade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Scarcity | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reposition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chained Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Aether | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Charge the Soul | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Krustallan Archer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |