EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GA Store Champs .
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 2 | 16.7% | 8 | 75.0% | 64.4% | 55.8% | 54.9% | 1410 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 75.0% | 60.2% | 55.0% | 54.1% | 1369 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 16.7% | 8 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 54.0% | 54.0% | 1364 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 48.7% | 50.0% | 49.5% | 1291 | — |
| 5 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 42.7% | 49.3% | 45.9% | 1309 | — |
| 6 | Water Umbra Ciel | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 47.3% | 48.0% | 47.6% | 1219 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Allies | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.4% | 46.7% | 47.0% | 1408 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 40.1% | 44.0% | 44.9% | 1172 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 38.3% | 44.0% | 45.2% | 1316 | — |
| 10 | Fire Neos Tonoris | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 39.3% | 40.0% | 45.7% | 1093 | ↓ low |