← Grand Arena DTR Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at Grand Arena DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-1-2
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.4%
avg ELO +2.0 per match
expected value
51.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1377
· median 1377
· range 1377–1377
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1111
Q1 1162
Q3 1276
1478
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Arisanna | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
