← Yeti Webcam Weekly 10/2/2025
Water AetherwingTier 2
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 10/2/2025
decks
4
(9.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-6-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.9%
avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
43.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1305
· median 1263
· range 1146–1548
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1083
Q1 1206
Q3 1418
1652
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 9.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
