EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Yeti Webcam Weekly 10/23/2025. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Crux Lorraine

55.5%

6.2% share · 5 matches

6.2% share · 8 matches

3rd

Water Umbra Guardian

55.0%

3.1% share · 3 matches

↓ low

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Aggro	2	6.2%	8	87.5%	50.7%	61.3%	50.3%	1333	—
2	Fire Crux Lorraine	2	6.2%	5	60.0%	49.8%	55.5%	50.3%	1446	↑ top
3	Water Umbra Guardian	1	3.1%	3	66.7%	50.6%	55.0%	50.4%	1209	↓ low
4	Wind Byakko	1	3.1%	4	75.0%	51.4%	53.3%	50.5%	1444	↑ top
5	Fire Suzaku	1	3.1%	4	50.0%	50.7%	51.7%	50.5%	1206	↓ low
6	Water Aetherwing	3	9.4%	9	61.1%	50.0%	51.2%	49.8%	1299	—
7	Fire Astra Cleric	1	3.1%	3	66.7%	51.3%	51.0%	50.4%	1083	↓ low
8	Fire Umbra Guardian	1	3.1%	2	50.0%	50.9%	50.0%	50.5%	1259	—
9	Wind Shadowstrike	1	3.1%	2	50.0%	50.3%	50.0%	50.2%	1215	↓ low
10	Wind Seiryuu	4	12.5%	12	54.2%	50.3%	49.6%	49.9%	1306	—
11	Fire Slimes	2	6.2%	6	41.7%	49.3%	49.1%	49.5%	1460	↑ top
12	Water Tera Mage	2	6.2%	5	40.0%	50.5%	48.2%	50.1%	1246	↓ low
13	Fire Crux Mage	5	15.6%	15	43.3%	50.7%	47.5%	50.3%	1346	—
14	Wind Beast	1	3.1%	2	25.0%	49.3%	42.9%	49.4%	1100	↓ low
15	Wind Umbra Guardian	1	3.1%	3	33.3%	48.5%	42.9%	49.0%	1463	↑ top
16	Water Genbu	1	3.1%	3	16.7%	48.4%	41.0%	49.0%	1316	—
17	Fire Tera Cleric	1	3.1%	2	0.0%	48.3%	40.0%	49.0%	1094	↓ low
18	Water Astra Cleric	1	3.1%	2	0.0%	48.1%	40.0%	48.9%	1241	↓ low
19	Water Tera Tamer	1	3.1%	2	0.0%	48.3%	33.3%	48.3%	1219	↓ low