Fire SuitedTier 2
at 20251018 貓腳印-桃園店 DTR 店冠賽
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 8.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.2% | -12.3 |
| Wind Allies | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.7% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.9% | -15.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.2 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Water Astra Diana | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.7 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.3% | +12.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Suited decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rouge, Ace of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suited Trickery | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Raised Slash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Five of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Duchess, Six of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verita, Queen of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wonderland's Reign | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trump Set | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ashen Riffle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |