Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at 20251018 貓腳印-桃園店 DTR 店冠賽
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suited | 8.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -5.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conflagrative Trounce | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chamber of Reflections | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overpowering Defense | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chibi, Battle of Red Cliffs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Siphoning Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Obsequious Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mad Tea Party | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |