EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DTR Massachusetts Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Allies | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 75.0% | 51.3% | 57.3% | 51.8% | 1453 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Seiryuu | 4 | 8.0% | 20 | 75.0% | 67.4% | 55.7% | 54.1% | 1345 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 5 | 10.0% | 26 | 63.5% | 64.8% | 54.3% | 55.7% | 1268 | — |
| 4 | Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1 | 2.0% | 7 | 71.4% | 64.8% | 53.3% | 53.8% | 1328 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 4 | 8.0% | 24 | 62.5% | 48.6% | 52.6% | 48.5% | 1299 | — |
| 6 | Fire Suited | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 50.0% | 43.4% | 52.5% | 50.2% | 1432 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 4.0% | 12 | 58.3% | 57.6% | 52.1% | 52.5% | 1211 | — |
| 8 | Fire Crux Mage | 4 | 8.0% | 23 | 58.7% | 49.4% | 51.8% | 48.9% | 1351 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 2.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 57.8% | 51.7% | 52.8% | 1311 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Wind Beast | 1 | 2.0% | 7 | 57.1% | 59.1% | 50.8% | 52.1% | 1100 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Fractal | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 33.3% | 38.4% | 49.3% | 48.1% | 1153 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 2.0% | 7 | 35.7% | 39.8% | 49.0% | 48.3% | 1123 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 58.3% | 55.1% | 48.8% | 48.4% | 1282 | — |
| 14 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 58.3% | 48.8% | 48.5% | 46.9% | 1349 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 58.3% | 54.3% | 48.5% | 49.6% | 1291 | — |
| 16 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 50.0% | 53.2% | 48.0% | 49.3% | 1242 | — |
| 17 | Water Neos | 1 | 2.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 38.3% | 48.0% | 47.8% | 1221 | — |
| 18 | Fire Polkhawk | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 33.3% | 33.1% | 47.1% | 46.1% | 1311 | — |
| 19 | Water Aetherwing | 3 | 6.0% | 18 | 41.7% | 53.2% | 46.8% | 50.6% | 1196 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 50.0% | 53.0% | 46.7% | 47.5% | 1364 | ↑ top |
| 21 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 2 | 4.0% | 12 | 41.7% | 44.1% | 46.7% | 47.1% | 1246 | — |
| 22 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 41.7% | 49.9% | 46.1% | 48.8% | 1163 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Water Umbra Guardian | 3 | 6.0% | 18 | 41.7% | 43.9% | 45.6% | 46.5% | 1272 | — |
| 24 | Water Allies | 1 | 2.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 40.8% | 44.0% | 46.7% | 1084 | ↓ low |
| 25 | Water Genbu | 3 | 6.0% | 15 | 33.3% | 42.6% | 43.7% | 46.4% | 1135 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 2.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 43.4% | 43.3% | 44.7% | 1222 | — |
| 27 | Fire Exia | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 33.3% | 48.6% | 43.1% | 47.9% | 1109 | ↓ low |
| 28 | Water Triskit | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 16.7% | 37.3% | 42.8% | 46.0% | 1055 | ↓ low |
| 29 | Fire Tera Kongming | 1 | 2.0% | 3 | 33.3% | 48.5% | 42.2% | 45.7% | 1180 | ↓ low |
| 30 | Water Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 2.0% | 3 | 0.0% | 30.5% | 40.0% | 39.2% | 1163 | ↓ low |
| 31 | Water Tera Cleric | 1 | 2.0% | 3 | 0.0% | 30.5% | 40.0% | 39.2% | 1163 | ↓ low |