Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at Store Championship
decks
4
(13.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
22
9-9-4
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.4%
avg ELO -1.7 per match
expected value
51.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1341
· median 1371
· range 1209–1414
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1103
Q1 1230
Q3 1406
1574
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.3% | 5 | 1-2-2 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 34.2% | -9.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.0% | +14.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 10.0% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 34.1% | -11.8 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.2% | +4.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 69.7% | +12.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.5% | -4.4 |
| Fire Byakko | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Slimes | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.3 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
