Water Crux MageTier 2
at Store Championship
decks
1
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
32.0%
avg ELO -9.6 per match
expected value
49.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1519
· median 1519
· range 1519–1519
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1103
Q1 1230
Q3 1406
1574
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.0% | -24.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Fire Byakko | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
