Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Road to Ascent Baguio Leg
decks
2
(6.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
8-3-0
overall winrate
72.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.9%
avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
55.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1378
· median 1378
· range 1356–1400
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1079
Q1 1175
Q3 1287
1421
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 10.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Fire Suited | 6.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.4% | -2.5 |
| Fire Diao Chan | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.6 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Oblation | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +2.0 |
| Wind Allies | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
