← Outpost Ghent | Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Outpost Ghent | Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Shadowstrike 3 30.0% 11 72.7% 70.3% 58.2% 57.9% 1285
2 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 10.0% 6 58.3% 43.9% 52.0% 45.3% 1396 ↑ top
3 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 10.0% 5 50.0% 47.2% 49.8% 47.6% 1421 ↑ top
4 Fire Aetherwing 1 10.0% 4 50.0% 52.7% 48.6% 48.9% 1292
5 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 10.0% 4 25.0% 34.2% 45.7% 43.9% 1176 ↓ low
6 Fire Aggro 2 20.0% 6 33.3% 52.5% 43.8% 49.4% 1144 ↓ low
7 Water Astra Ranger 1 10.0% 4 25.0% 32.6% 41.1% 38.3% 1158 ↓ low