← Outpost Ghent | Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Outpost Ghent | Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 30.0% | 11 | 72.7% | 70.3% | 58.2% | 57.9% | 1285 | — |
| 2 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 10.0% | 6 | 58.3% | 43.9% | 52.0% | 45.3% | 1396 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 50.0% | 47.2% | 49.8% | 47.6% | 1421 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 52.7% | 48.6% | 48.9% | 1292 | — |
| 5 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 34.2% | 45.7% | 43.9% | 1176 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 20.0% | 6 | 33.3% | 52.5% | 43.8% | 49.4% | 1144 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 32.6% | 41.1% | 38.3% | 1158 | ↓ low |