← Yeti Webcam Weekly 11/6/2025
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 11/6/2025
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 20.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 13.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.6% | +1.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Jin | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |