← Distorted Reflections Store Championship by Metagame Thailand
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Distorted Reflections Store Championship by Metagame Thailand
decks
2
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
7-3-0
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.1%
avg ELO +4.1 per match
expected value
57.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1327
· median 1327
· range 1177–1478
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1083
Q1 1174
Q3 1298
1478
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.4% | +15.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Slimes | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -2.6 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
