← Distorted Reflections Store Championship by Metagame Thailand
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Distorted Reflections Store Championship by Metagame Thailand
decks
3
(18.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
5-5-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.5%
avg ELO -1.1 per match
expected value
49.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1276
· median 1259
· range 1177–1392
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1083
Q1 1174
Q3 1298
1478
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Merlin | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 12.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.6% | -15.7 |
| Slimes | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -2.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
