← Beginner's Luck Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Beginner's Luck Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 21.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 14.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.2 |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +2.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.8% | -4.0 |
| Fire Exia | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.0% | -8.6 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.7 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Surreptitious Scheme | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |