← Beginner's Luck Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Beginner's Luck Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 14.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.6% | +14.9 |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.3% | -2.1 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.9% | +12.4 |
| Water Allies | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hasty Messenger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |