← Beginner's Luck Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Wind Astra ClericTier 2
at Beginner's Luck Distorted Reflections Store Championship
decks
4
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
3-5-3
overall winrate
40.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.3%
avg ELO -4.7 per match
expected value
45.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1387
· median 1378
· range 1160–1633
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1078
Q1 1212
Q3 1367
1633
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 21.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.4% | -14.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +1.2 |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Fire Exia | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Water Allies | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.2% | -22.1 |
| Water Fractal | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
