← Topspot DTR Store Championship
Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at Topspot DTR Store Championship
decks
3
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
9-4-1
overall winrate
67.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.6%
avg ELO +1.1 per match
expected value
54.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1506
· median 1593
· range 1188–1736
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1010
Q1 1212
Q3 1440
1736
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 38.6% | -6.5 |
| Water Genbu | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 48.9% | -1.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.7 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.6 |
