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Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Topspot DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-1-2
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.8%
avg ELO -3.0 per match
expected value
54.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1345
· median 1345
· range 1345–1345
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1010
Q1 1212
Q3 1440
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -2.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.9% | -22.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Ravishing Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
