← Topspot DTR Store Championship
Water GenbuTier 2
at Topspot DTR Store Championship
decks
3
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
3-8-1
overall winrate
29.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
33.7%
avg ELO -6.9 per match
expected value
41.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1260
· median 1255
· range 1060–1465
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1010
Q1 1212
Q3 1440
1736
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.7% | -11.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.1% | +2.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.1 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.6% | -26.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.5% | -24.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
