← GA Middle East Weekly DTR #16

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GA Middle East Weekly DTR #16. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Arcane 1 12.5% 3 83.3% 51.6% 56.7% 50.7% 1302
2 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 12.5% 3 66.7% 50.2% 53.3% 50.1% 1231 ↓ low
3 Water Tera Mage 1 12.5% 3 66.7% 49.8% 53.3% 49.9% 1367 ↑ top
4 Fire Crux Mage 1 12.5% 3 50.0% 49.4% 50.0% 49.7% 1313
5 Water Umbra Guardian 1 12.5% 3 50.0% 50.3% 50.0% 50.1% 1134 ↓ low
6 Wind Umbra Diana 1 12.5% 3 50.0% 50.5% 50.0% 50.2% 1425 ↑ top
7 Fire Exia 1 12.5% 3 33.3% 50.0% 46.7% 50.0% 1448 ↑ top
8 Fire Umbra Ciel 1 12.5% 3 0.0% 48.3% 40.0% 49.2% 1203 ↓ low