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Fire EruptingTier 1
at No-Banlist Revelfest Tournament!
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 46.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 15.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Water Allies | 15.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 45 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 45 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rile the Abyss | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zhou Yu, Enlightened Sage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Avarice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Da Qiao, Cinderbinder | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Ascetic Vice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystal of Empowerment | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Leeching Bolt | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gem of Searing Flame | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Fel Eidolon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Channeling Stone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Erupting Rhapsody | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamebreak Chorus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planar Abyss | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |