EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DTR Season Revelfest Tourney #7. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Water Allies

52.5%

22.2% share · 5 matches

1st

Wind Wakeup Combo

53.3%

11.1% share · 3 matches

22.2% share · 6 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Wakeup Combo	1	11.1%	3	66.7%	49.6%	53.3%	49.5%	1417	↑ top
2	Water Allies	2	22.2%	5	60.0%	50.6%	52.5%	50.2%	1278	—
3	Fire Crux Mage	2	22.2%	6	58.3%	51.0%	52.0%	50.4%	1245	—
4	Wind Razorgale	1	11.1%	2	50.0%	50.1%	50.0%	50.0%	1206	↓ low
5	Wind Seiryuu	1	11.1%	3	50.0%	49.5%	50.0%	49.6%	1372	↑ top
6	Fire Crux Lorraine	1	11.1%	1	0.0%	49.5%	40.0%	49.5%	1327	↑ top
7	Water Umbra Guardian	1	11.1%	2	0.0%	48.8%	40.0%	49.3%	1134	↓ low