← Grand Archive 2024 World Championships
Fire ArcaneTier 1
at Grand Archive 2024 World Championships
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 25.0% | 10 | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 42.9% | 39.4% | -4.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 12.5% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 76.4% | +13.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +2.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 78.3% | +27.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 14.3% | -26.6 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.5% | -8.2 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Arcane decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Disintegrate, Power Overwhelming, Spirit of Fire. Losers more often ran: Arcane Sight, Arcane Disposition, Vanish from Sight.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 6 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Disintegrate | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Power Overwhelming | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Arcane Sight | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Arcane Disposition | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Spellshield: Arcane | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tome of Knowledge | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Anger the Skies | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Erratic Bolt | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Peer into Mana | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fireball | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Storm Tyrant's Eye | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 |