EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at PTM | Road to Ascent Manila.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 80.0% | 53.0% | 58.3% | 51.8% | 1550 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Exia | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 80.0% | 51.1% | 57.1% | 50.9% | 1467 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Rai | 1 | 4.8% | 6 | 83.3% | 53.2% | 56.7% | 51.1% | 1352 | — |
| 4 | Water Genbu | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 60.0% | 50.0% | 56.7% | 50.0% | 1269 | — |
| 5 | Water Overlord | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 70.0% | 52.6% | 55.7% | 50.7% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 75.0% | 51.0% | 55.0% | 50.4% | 1400 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Oblation | 3 | 14.3% | 15 | 56.7% | 49.8% | 52.2% | 50.0% | 1395 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Allies | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 60.0% | 50.2% | 52.0% | 50.1% | 1487 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 60.0% | 50.2% | 52.0% | 50.1% | 1487 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Zander | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.1% | 50.0% | 49.7% | 1267 | — |
| 11 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 4.8% | 6 | 50.0% | 48.0% | 47.5% | 49.1% | 1341 | — |
| 12 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 50.0% | 51.2% | 47.1% | 50.3% | 1234 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Crux Merlin | 1 | 4.8% | 6 | 33.3% | 49.5% | 46.7% | 49.8% | 1331 | — |
| 14 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 52.0% | 45.7% | 50.5% | 1182 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 25.0% | 50.1% | 45.0% | 50.1% | 1125 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Water Crux Assassin | 1 | 4.8% | 6 | 25.0% | 47.1% | 43.6% | 48.9% | 1287 | — |
| 17 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 25.0% | 48.1% | 43.3% | 49.2% | 1280 | — |
| 18 | Fire Umbra Diana | 1 | 4.8% | 3 | 0.0% | 47.9% | 40.0% | 49.4% | 1220 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 4.8% | 3 | 0.0% | 46.5% | 40.0% | 48.7% | 1162 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 4.8% | 3 | 0.0% | 48.1% | 40.0% | 49.1% | 1114 | ↓ low |