← Mad Alpaca Games Davis PTM Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Mad Alpaca Games Davis PTM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 100.0% | 73.2% | 60.0% | 59.4% | 1418 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Genbu | 2 | 14.3% | 9 | 77.8% | 49.6% | 56.4% | 50.3% | 1483 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 55.7% | 52.5% | 53.4% | 1179 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 44.1% | 50.0% | 51.1% | 1216 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 14.3% | 8 | 50.0% | 44.6% | 50.0% | 48.2% | 1429 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 57.1% | 50.0% | 53.6% | 1336 | — |
| 7 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 3 | 21.4% | 11 | 54.5% | 49.7% | 49.7% | 49.6% | 1410 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Allies | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 49.8% | 42.9% | 48.2% | 1124 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 49.8% | 42.9% | 48.2% | 1124 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Suited | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 42.7% | 42.9% | 45.5% | 1129 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 0.0% | 37.0% | 36.7% | 43.5% | 1049 | ↓ low |