EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 紙牌屋店冠賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 8.3% | 7 | 71.4% | 67.6% | 54.2% | 55.8% | 1455 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 67.6% | 52.0% | 55.9% | 1228 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 66.7% | 49.0% | 51.2% | 48.2% | 1535 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Fractal | 2 | 16.7% | 11 | 54.5% | 52.9% | 50.6% | 50.8% | 1281 | — |
| 5 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 50.0% | 37.0% | 50.0% | 45.2% | 1393 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 53.0% | 48.6% | 51.4% | 1242 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Genbu | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 37.5% | 34.1% | 48.0% | 44.4% | 1409 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 50.2% | 48.0% | 50.4% | 1160 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 47.3% | 48.0% | 51.4% | 1126 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 16.7% | 7 | 35.7% | 37.7% | 47.5% | 45.7% | 1335 | — |