← Valhalla Hobby Phantom Monarch Championship
Fire ExiaTier 1
at Valhalla Hobby Phantom Monarch Championship
decks
1
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
2-1-0
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.2%
avg ELO +2.4 per match
expected value
53.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1362
· median 1362
· range 1362–1362
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1160
Q1 1184
Q3 1365
1404
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Astra Ranger | 25.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Wind Slimes | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.2 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
