← Valhalla Hobby Phantom Monarch Championship
Water Astra RangerTier 1
at Valhalla Hobby Phantom Monarch Championship
decks
2
(25.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-3-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.6%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1284
· median 1284
· range 1192–1376
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1160
Q1 1184
Q3 1365
1404
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Exia | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Wind Slimes | 12.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.1% | -13.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
