← Highpoint Store Championships! - Phantom Monarchs
Fire Umbra CielTier 1
at Highpoint Store Championships! - Phantom Monarchs
decks
2
(8.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
6-3-1
overall winrate
65.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.6%
avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
54.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1413
· median 1413
· range 1262–1563
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1032
Q1 1232
Q3 1394
1563
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 13.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.8% | -3.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.4 |
| Slimes | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
