← Game Kastle Santa Clara Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Game Kastle Santa Clara Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 9.1% | 8 | 68.8% | 60.8% | 55.5% | 54.7% | 1544 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 70.0% | 53.3% | 55.0% | 51.6% | 1616 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 70.0% | 53.0% | 55.0% | 52.6% | 1423 | — |
| 4 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 9.1% | 10 | 70.0% | 60.3% | 54.2% | 53.2% | 1479 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Oblation | 2 | 9.1% | 10 | 70.0% | 58.1% | 53.6% | 51.8% | 1484 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 59.5% | 51.1% | 52.7% | 1294 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 9.1% | 7 | 42.9% | 37.9% | 49.6% | 47.0% | 1446 | — |
| 8 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 9.1% | 10 | 55.0% | 49.4% | 48.5% | 48.5% | 1464 | — |
| 9 | Fire Exia | 1 | 4.5% | 4 | 50.0% | 60.3% | 48.0% | 53.7% | 1280 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 4.5% | 4 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 48.0% | 47.2% | 1317 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 9.1% | 8 | 37.5% | 46.9% | 46.7% | 48.2% | 1412 | — |
| 12 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 57.5% | 45.7% | 50.9% | 1192 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 20.0% | 38.8% | 42.2% | 44.6% | 1407 | — |
| 14 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 4.5% | 2 | 0.0% | 35.4% | 40.0% | 41.5% | 1445 | — |
| 15 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 4.5% | 3 | 0.0% | 35.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | 1356 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Water Crux Assassin | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 0.0% | 30.4% | 40.0% | 43.4% | 1257 | ↓ low |