EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at PTM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 8.7% | 10 | 75.0% | 55.7% | 57.5% | 52.4% | 1354 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 80.0% | 65.2% | 55.6% | 55.0% | 1291 | — |
| 3 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 70.0% | 57.7% | 55.5% | 53.9% | 1336 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 59.0% | 54.0% | 54.7% | 1151 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 13.0% | 12 | 58.3% | 52.7% | 51.9% | 50.3% | 1325 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Aetherwing | 3 | 13.0% | 12 | 50.0% | 62.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | 1178 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Tera Mage | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 37.5% | 40.1% | 50.0% | 47.8% | 1284 | — |
| 8 | Water Fractal | 2 | 8.7% | 5 | 60.0% | 38.7% | 50.0% | 42.3% | 1368 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 70.0% | 52.6% | 50.0% | 47.6% | 1405 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Crux Lorraine | 1 | 4.3% | 6 | 58.3% | 57.3% | 48.9% | 50.1% | 1162 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 4.3% | 3 | 33.3% | 42.2% | 46.7% | 46.4% | 1206 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Suited | 2 | 8.7% | 9 | 27.8% | 37.5% | 44.7% | 45.8% | 1271 | — |
| 13 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 37.5% | 49.2% | 43.9% | 47.1% | 1187 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 4.3% | 2 | 0.0% | 40.2% | 40.0% | 44.9% | 1183 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 4.3% | 3 | 0.0% | 34.5% | 40.0% | 41.4% | 1068 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Umbra Alice | 1 | 4.3% | 2 | 0.0% | 40.2% | 40.0% | 44.9% | 1183 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 12.5% | 41.6% | 38.3% | 43.9% | 1112 | ↓ low |